Russia election set to tighten Putin's grip despite noon protest
President Vladimir Putin is poised to tighten his grip on power on Sunday in a Russian election that is certain to deliver him a landslide victory, though some opponents staged a symbolic noon protest at polling stations against his rule.
Putin, who rose to power in 1999, is poised to win a new six-year term that, if he completes it, would enable him to overtake Josef Stalin and become Russia's longest-serving leader for more than 200 years.
The election comes just over two years since Putin triggered the deadliest European conflict since World War Two by ordering the invasion of Ukraine. He casts it as a "special military operation".
War has hung over the three day election: Ukraine has repeatedly attacked oil refineries in Russia, shelled Russian regions and sought to pierce Russian borders with proxy forces - a move Putin said would not be left unpunished.
While Putin's re-election is not in doubt given his control over Russia and the absence of any real challengers, the former KGB spy wants to show that he has the overwhelming support of Russians. Voting ends at 1800 GMT on Sunday.
The Kremlin has sought a high turnout, and as polls opened for a third day in western Russia, officials said the turnout in the first two days had already reached 63% nationwide. An exit poll will be published shortly after voting ends at 1800 GMT.
Supporters of Alexei Navalny, who died in an Arctic prison last month, had called on Russians to come out at a "Noon against Putin" protest to show their dissent against a leader they cast as a corrupt autocrat.
"Alexei was fighting for very simple things: for freedom of speech, for fair elections, for democracy and our right to live without corruption and war," Navalny's widow, Yulia, said in a message to a rally in Budapest on March 15.
"Putin is not Russia. Russia is not Putin."
There was no independent tally of how many of Russia's 114 million voters turned out at noon to show opposition to Putin, amid extremely tight security involving tens of thousands of police and security officials.
'NOON AGAINST PUTIN'
Reuters journalists saw a slight increase in the flow of voters, especially younger people, at noon at some polling stations in Moscow and Yekaterinburg, with queues of several hundred people. Some said they were protesting.
Leonid Volkov, an exiled Navalny aide who was attacked with a hammer last week in Vilnius, estimated hundreds of thousands of people had come out to polling stations in Moscow, St Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and other cities.
At polling stations at Russian diplomatic missions from Australia and Japan to Armenia, Kazakhstan and Georgia, hundreds of Russians stood in line at noon.
Over the previous two days, there were scattered incidents of protest as some Russians set fire to voting booths and poured dye into ballot boxes, drawing a rebuke from Russian officials who called them scumbags and traitors. Opponents posted some pictures of ballots spoiled with slogans insulting Putin.
But Navalny's death has left the scattered opposition deprived of its most formidable leader.
The West casts Putin as an autocrat and a killer. U.S. President Joe Biden last month dubbed him a "crazy SOB". The International Criminal Court in the Hague has indicted him for the alleged war crime of abducting Ukrainian children, which the Kremlin denies.
WAR
Russia's election comes at what Western spy chiefs say is a crossroads for the Ukraine war and the wider West.
Support for Ukraine is tangled in U.S. domestic politics ahead of the November presidential election contest between Biden and predecessor Donald Trump, whose Republican party in Congress has blocked military aid for Kyiv.
The Biden administration fears Putin could grab a bigger slice of Ukraine unless Kyiv gets more support soon. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has said that could embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Putin casts the war as part of a centuries-old battle with a declining and decadent West that he says humiliated Russia after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 by encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
Hundreds of thousands of soldiers have been killed or seriously injured, though neither side gives proper casualty figures. Swathes of Ukraine have been devastated.
Angela Stent, senior non-resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the election outcome was not in question but that there were serious reasons to take note of the event.
"The Russian presidential election matters to the United States and its allies for two reasons: what happens during the voting period and what follows after it is over," Stent, told the Russia Matters project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center.
Voting is also taking place in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and what Moscow calls its "new territories", four other regions it partly controls and has claimed Russia since 2022. Kyiv regards the election taking place in parts of its territory controlled by Russia as illegal and void.
Other News
Here is your Pro Recap of the top takeaways from Wall Street analysts for the past week: upgrades for Dupont, Datadog and NetApp.
U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day.
Dupont
What happened? On Tuesday, Citi upgraded Dupont (NYSE:DD) to Buy with $95 price target
What’s the full story? DD shares exhibited a robust reaction in the 1.5 days following the announcement, rising approximately 3%. The feedback from investors was positive - the prospect of operating as standalone businesses should generate value through targeted growth and portfolio clarity. Additionally, Citi sees potential from an electronics recovery and the easing of destocking in more challenged markets.
The most significant source of resistance lies in valuation, particularly concerning Electronics and then New DuPont (RemainCo). Upon revisiting the Sum of the Parts in the new construct, The analysts’ views are more reflective of solid earnings from electronics over the next 18 months.
Citi sees the potential for more detail on the separation as potential positive catalysts throughout the year.
Buy at Citi means “Buy (1) ETR of 15% or more or 25% or more for High risk stocks.”
How did the stock react? Dupont opened the regular session at $82.44 and closed at
$82.08, a
gain of 1.18% from the prior day's regular close.
Mind Medicine
What happened? On Wednesday, well Tuesday after hours, Baird initiated coverage on Mind Medicine Inc (NASDAQ:MNMD) at Outperform with a $27 price target.
What’s the full story? Baird’s optimistic stance is primarily driven by the promising prospects of the company’s lead drug, MM120, a novel form of LSD designed to treat generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). In a pivotal phase 2b clinical trial, MM120 demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in GAD symptoms compared to a placebo. The results are particularly noteworthy as the observed therapeutic effect of MM120 was not only rapid in onset but also sustained over the entire 12-week duration of the study.
The brokerage house’s confidence is further bolstered by the recent decision of the FDA to award Breakthrough Therapy Designation to MM120. This designation is reserved for drugs that show substantial improvement over existing therapies for serious or life-threatening diseases. The fact that MM120’s impact was greater than that of currently approved treatments after just a single dose highlights its potential to be a game-changer in the GAD treatment landscape.
Considering the current market dynamics and the unmet medical needs within the GAD space, Baird views the market opportunity for MM120 as having blockbuster potential. The brokerage house’s analysis suggests that the drug could significantly disrupt the existing market, offering a new and potentially superior treatment option for patients suffering from GAD. This could translate into substantial financial success for the company, justifying the high expectations reflected in the $27 price target
Outperform at Baird means “Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.”
How did the stock react? Mind Medicine surged 6% after hours on Tuesday as the headlines
circulate. As of the regular session open Wednesday, Mind Medicine opened at $8.90 and
closed at $8.91, a gain of 6.64% from the prior day's regular close.
Datadog Inc
What happened? On Thursday, BofA upgraded Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) to Buy with a $155 price target.
What’s the full story? Datadog, a service that aids organizations in monitoring application and infrastructure performance to ensure high-quality end-user experiences, is seen by the bank as a significant opportunity, estimated to be worth $53bn. The robust platform of Datadog, which boasts 22 products, is particularly appealing to spend consolidators and those seeking cutting-edge technology.
Furthermore, BofA anticipates that Datadog will consistently deliver a Rule-of-40+ profile, which means 20%+ revenue growth plus 20%+ free cash flow margin. This expectation places Datadog well above the 30% average for the infrastructure peer group, demonstrating the bank’s confidence in Datadog’s potential for sustained growth and profitability.
Buy at BofA means “Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster.”
How did the stock react? Datadog opened the regular session at $123.38 and closed at
$117.45,
a decline of 3.48% from the prior day's regular close.
NetApp
What happened? On Friday, JPMorgan upgraded NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) to Neutral with a $125 price target.
What’s the full story? JPMorgan’s updated perspective is driven by the company’s demonstrated capability to maintain its gross margins in the face of escalating NAND prices. This development stands in contrast to JPMorgan’s initial forecast, which anticipated a decline in margins due to the cost pressures.
In addition to the positive outlook on gross margins, JPMorgan continues to recognize NTAP’s distinct position in the market, particularly in terms of its Cloud services and its leadership in All-Flash Arrays (AFA) for on-premises solutions. However, this is tempered by a perceived lackluster macroeconomic performance when compared to its peers, who are currently experiencing a more immediate surge in demand driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancements.
Neutral at JPMorgan means “over the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe.”
How did the stock react? NetApp opened the regular session at $119.75 and closed at $120.43, a gain of 3.73% from the prior day's regular close.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.
Brent crude oil prices have been trading near $80 per barrel in recent days, below what many OPEC+ members need to balance their budgets. Worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer China have weighed on prices alongside rising oil stocks in developed economies.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.
OPEC+ members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand.
Those include 3.66 million bpd of cuts, which were due to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd, expiring at the end of June 2024.
On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September 2024.
OPEC+ will gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.
"We are waiting for interest rates to come down and a better trajectory when it comes to economic growth ... not pockets of growth here and there," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters.
OPEC expects demand for OPEC+ crude to average 43.65 million bpd in the second half of 2024, implying a stocks drawdown of 2.63 million bpd if the group maintains output at April's rate of 41.02 million bpd.
The drawdown will be less when OPEC+ starts phasing out the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts in October.
The International Energy Agency, which represents top global consumers, estimates that demand for OPEC+ oil plus stocks will average much lower levels of 41.9 million bpd in 2024.
"The deal should allay market fears of OPEC+ adding back barrels at a time when demand concerns are still rife," said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects think tank.
Prince Abdulaziz said OPEC+ could pause the unwinding of cuts or reverse them if demand wasn't strong enough.
QUICK DEAL
Analysts had expected OPEC+ to prolong voluntary cuts by a few months due to falling oil prices and sluggish demand.
But many analysts had also predicted the group would struggle to set targets for 2025 as it had yet to agree individual capacity targets for each member, an issue that had previously created tensions.
The United Arab Emirates, for instance, has been pushing for a higher production quota, arguing its capacity figure had been long under-estimated.
But in a surprise development on Sunday, OPEC+ postponed the discussions on capacities until November 2025 from this year.
Instead, the group agreed a new output target for the UAE which will be allowed to gradually raise production by 0.3 million bpd, up from the current level of 2.9 million.
OPEC+ agreed that it would use independently assessed capacity figures as guidance for 2026 production instead of 2025 - postponing a potentially difficult discussion by one year.
Prince Abdulaziz said one of the reasons for the delay was difficulties for independent consultants to assess Russian data amid Western sanctions on Moscow for its war on Ukraine.
The meetings on Sunday lasted less than four hours - relatively short for such a complex deal.
OPEC+ sources said Prince Abdulaziz, the most influential minister in the OPEC group, had spent days preparing the deal behind the scenes.
He invited some key ministers - mostly those who contributed to the voluntary cuts - to come to the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday despite meetings being largely scheduled online.
The countries which have made voluntary cuts to output are Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
"It should be seen as a huge victory of solidarity for the group and Prince Abdulaziz," said Sen, adding the deal would ease fears of Saudi Arabia adding barrels back due to Aramco (TADAWUL:2222)'s share listing.
Saudi Arabia's government has filed papers to sell a new stake in state oil giant Aramco that could raise as much as $13.1 billion, a landmark deal to help fund Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan to diversify the economy.
OPEC+ will hold its next meeting on Dec. 1, 2024.
Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.
1. AI-enabled upgrade is coming:’ Apple reiterated as Top Pick at BofA
Bank of America reiterated Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock as their Top Pick, maintaining a price target of $230.
In particular, Wall Street giant analysts are bullish about Apple's transition from smartphones to "IntelliPhones," predicting a significant multi-year upgrade cycle.
"We view the upcoming AI-enabled phones (IntelliPhones) to drive a multi-year upgrade cycle similar to the step function improvement driven by the introduction of smartphones," the note stated.
BofA’s team believes that with a vast installed base of over four billion smartphones, the adoption of AI-enabled IntelliPhones will surpass the rapid uptake seen with smartphones and 5G.
IntelliPhones are expected to leverage advanced AI and machine learning for features such as superior personal assistance, language processing, health monitoring, enhanced photography, and AR/VR experiences, among other things.
2. Needham downgrades UiPath stock
Needham analysts on Thursday downgraded UiPath (NYSE:PATH) stock from Buy to Hold citing a mix of factors, including macroeconomic headwinds and a changing go-to-market (GTM) strategy.
"We downgrade PATH shares to Hold due to a combination of macro pressure, uncertainty around near-term execution due to a CEO change and a changing GTM strategy, and Y/Y margin compression creating an unfavorable near-term financial profile,” analysts wrote.
The investment firm noted that the company's Q1F25 sales metrics were mildly disappointing, with large deals facing incremental scrutiny.
The recent CEO change back to founder Daniel Dines, following Rob Enslin's departure, and multiple GTM changes are expected to cause near-term sales disruptions.
Net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) and revenue guidance were both lowered, which Needham believes is “conservative enough, but we think it will take multiple quarters for the GTM changes to start driving meaningful upside to guidance.”
3. Northland ups C3.ai to Buy amid accelerating subscription growth
Enterprise AI firm C3.ai (NYSE:AI) saw its shares upgraded by Northland analysts during the week from Market Perform to Outperform, with a target price of $35.
Analysts highlighted the company’s rising subscription growth in Q4 2024 as a key factor behind the upward revision.
"C3.ai posted accelerating subscription growth to 41% in 4Q24, providing evidence that the headwinds from a migration to a usage-based revenue model are abating," analysts commented.
Looking forward, strong pilot expansion and demand for generative AI (genAI) signal continued high growth, they added.
4. Mizuho hikes price targets on chip stocks as AI moves to the edge
Japanese investment banking and securities firm Mizuho lifted its price targets on several chipmakers this week, including Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ:STX), and Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC).
The move comes as Mizuho analysts believe the next catalyst for AI will be at the edge, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) push AI on-device capabilities for handsets and PCs.
The firm reiterated Buy ratings, raising price targets to $240 for Micron, $155 for Qualcomm, $90 for Seagate, and $110 for Western Digital.
Analysts highlighted Qualcomm's ramp-up with AI PCs using Snapdragon X Elite and Plus, and the expected increase in AI smartphone shipments.
Moreover, AI PCs, requiring 40% to 80% more DRAM, and handsets needing 50% to 100% more DRAM, present tailwinds for Micron. Western Digital and Micron are also expected to benefit from higher NAND content in AI devices with improved pricing.
Meanwhile, Seagate stands out with higher storage content on PCs and increasing cloud capital expenditure. Mizuho forecasts 1 billion AI smartphones shipped from 2024 to 2027, with AI PCs comprising up to 60% of the PC market by 2027.
5. Dell is a 'legit GenAI participant,' says Loop Capital
In a new note to clients, analysts at Loop Capital reiterated a Buy rating on Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) shares and lifted their price target from $125 to $185, emphasizing the IT company is “progressing as a legit GenAI participant.”
"Dell continues to show legitimate GenAI progression the last 90 days which seemingly could progress through CY2025," Loop analysts stated.
The investment bank pointed out Dell's well-positioned stance for long-term commercial IT budget share, noting the company's expanding capabilities across infrastructure products, services, and financing.
Dell identified a $2 to $3 attach revenue opportunity in services, networking, and storage for every $1 of GenAI server revenue.
“On storage specifically, there has been a suggestion in our work that for commercial (non-Hyperscale) Gen AI storage that after VAST Data & WEKA, DELL storage could be as well positioned as PSTG & NTAP, if not better positioned,” analysts wrote.